EU-Mercosur trade deal faces fierce opposition as support grows

In late 2024, the 27-nation European Union and the South American trade bloc Mercosur, which includes Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Bolivia, continue to work on finalizing a trade agreement that has been under negotiation for more than 20 years. The talks began in 1999, leading to a draft agreement announced in 2019. However, the deal remains unratified due to strong opposition from various EU member states, particularly France, which has a large agriculture sector and is concerned about the potential negative impact on European farmers. Recent protests led by farmers in Europe highlight their fears that reduced tariffs on South American agricultural exports such as beef, poultry, and sugar could threaten their livelihoods. In October 2024, an audit by the European Commission indicated that Brazil cannot assure that its beef exports are free from banned growth hormones, intensifying concerns surrounding the trade agreement. Despite this, leaders from South America, including Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, view the deal as critical for boosting regional trade and economic growth. This sentiment is echoed by leaders from Uruguay and Paraguay, who seek to diversify trade partners and reduce reliance on China, as well as by Argentina's President Javier Milei, who has shifted from his predecessor’s skepticism about the agreement. The momentum towards finalizing the agreement has garnered support from Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, who described it as economically and strategically important. Nonetheless, she faces challenges from member states that share France's opposition. French President Emmanuel Macron has insisted on the need for stronger environmental and labor standards, claiming that France would not agree to the deal in its current form. While France attempts to block the trade agreement, the process remains primarily under the authority of the European Commission, which operates on behalf of all member states. The upcoming Mercosur summit scheduled for December 5-6 in Uruguay could present a critical juncture for the agreement. France may have an opportunity to veto the deal during this summit since a majority vote is needed under EU rules, bypassing the requirement for unanimous approval. While other countries such as Poland and Austria have raised their objections, their collective influence is insufficient to prevent the agreement from moving forward.