The Brief – Putin from Kursk to Kursk

On 6 August, Ukraine initiated an incursion into the Kursk Oblast, which was initially dismissed by many Western analysts as a fleeting event. However, this action marked a significant moment in the ongoing conflict that began with Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. Analysts have characterized Ukraine's military as a 'MacGyver army,' highlighting its resourcefulness despite Russian claims to the contrary. The Ukrainian leadership's decision to act independently was a strategic move, coinciding with a period when Russia felt secure in its advances in the Donbas region. The timing of the incursion was psychologically advantageous for Ukraine, as it disrupted Russian expectations of a ceasefire favorable to Moscow. The potential for future peace settlements now suggests the establishment of demilitarized buffer zones along the internationally recognized 1991 border, rather than solely on Ukrainian territory as Russia had envisioned. This shift in perspective indicates a more balanced approach to territorial negotiations. Despite the ongoing conflict, Russia has not mobilized sufficient resources to counter the Ukrainian forces effectively. The narrative promoted by Putin, framing the invasion as a 'special military operation,' has not aligned with the realities faced by Russian soldiers, with over 66,000 casualties reported. This stark contrast to historical conflicts, such as the Afghanistan war, raises questions about the sustainability of Russia's military strategy. Putin's political survival appears contingent on maintaining a state of war, as illustrated by a humorous anecdote involving Stalin's ghost advising him to seek American weaponry. The hope among some Ukrainians is that the path initiated by the Kursk incursion will ultimately lead to a resolution that favors Ukraine.