Chinese exports to US decline as tariffs loom

In February 2025, Chinese companies reduced their shipments of small packages to the United States amid the ongoing tensions surrounding trade policies. This decline follows the announcement by the Trump administration that it intends to impose tariffs on all goods imported from China, which included a move to end the tariff-free exemption for items under a declared value of $800. The data published by Beijing's Customs authority highlighted that the value of small packages sent from China to the US decreased by nearly 5 percent when compared to February 2024. This trend may be significantly influenced by the earlier timing of the Chinese New Year holiday in 2024, during which many factories were closed, further compounding the challenges faced by exporters. During the first two months of 2025, approximately $3.5 billion worth of parcels were shipped to the US from China, reflecting only a marginal increase of 2.3 percent from the same period in the previous year. This is particularly relevant given the backdrop of booming demand for low-cost consumer goods through shopping apps, which utilized the previously existing loophole in customs regulations. The Trump administration had initially taken steps toward a crackdown on these imports, announcing intentions to suspend the de minimis provision but later reversing that ruling without a clear timeline for its reinstatement. The situation remains uncertain as the US government aims to process roughly four million packages that entered daily in 2024, leading to an estimated 1.4 billion de minimis shipments throughout that year. There are growing concerns that targeting these goods could impact consumers who have become accustomed to benefiting from lower prices. The potential abolition of the de minimis exemption is anticipated to generate approximately $7 billion in uncollected duties, illustrating the significant financial implications of such regulatory changes for both governments and consumers alike.