Japan's ruling coalition braces for major election loss amid rising prices

In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition faced a critical upper house election, with voters deciding on half of the 248 seats in the less powerful chamber of the Diet. This election, held on July 20, 2025, was crucial as the coalition needed to retain at least 50 additional seats to maintain control. Rising prices, particularly for rice, and political uncertainty due to tariffs imposed by the United States burdened voters, leading to increased support for right-wing populist parties advocating for stricter immigration policies. Exit polls indicated that Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito could secure between 32 to 51 seats, revealing a significant loss compared to the 141 seats they previously held, which may lead to political instability. A poor performance in this election would not immediately trigger a change in government, but it would deepen the uncertainty around Ishiba’s leadership, coupled with calls from within the party for change due to the coalition's declining popularity. Additionally, voters expressed frustrations regarding social security payments and the economic impact of tariffs, fueling a political shift as coalition seats hang in the balance and opposition parties gain momentum amidst Ishiba's moderate yet reluctant governance. An emerging populist party, Sanseito, capitalized on voter discontent with its anti-foreign campaign, pointing out that traditional stability may no longer align with the electorate's desires for change as they navigate through economic hardships and uncertainties regarding immigration and social policies.