Poll Shows Trump and Cruz Struggling in Texas

In a recent survey, Republican Senator Ted Cruz holds a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Colin Allred, with 46.6% of likely voters supporting Cruz compared to 44.5% for Allred. Allred, a Dallas Democrat and a three-term congressman, is viewed as a significant contender for flipping a GOP-controlled Senate seat, especially as Democrats face challenges in the current electoral landscape. Cruz is seeking reelection for the first time since his slim victory over Beto O’Rourke in 2018, which marked the closest statewide margin for Democrats in decades. At the presidential level, the dynamics are shifting, with independent voters showing a notable change in support. President Trump’s lead among independents has dwindled to just 2 percentage points, a stark contrast to his previous 24-point advantage in June. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris has gained traction among women voters, now leading by 6 points, a significant turnaround from earlier polls. Trump's current 4.9-point lead mirrors his 2020 margin over Biden in Texas. The survey indicates that Harris's supporters exhibit a higher level of commitment to their candidate compared to Trump’s base, with 96% of Harris voters expressing certainty in their choice. In contrast, only 88% of Trump supporters are firmly backing Cruz. Additionally, younger voters who previously leaned away from the Democratic Party appear to be returning to support Harris. Despite Cruz's slight lead, concerns are mounting among his supporters. The senator's favorability rating is precariously close, with 49% positive to 48% negative, while Allred enjoys a more favorable split. The commitment levels among party supporters suggest a challenging path ahead for Cruz as the election approaches.