Trump prepares to tackle complex Middle East challenges upon return

Following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks in southern Israel, the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip has entered its second year with heavy casualties, exceeding 44,000 deaths as reported by the Gaza Health Ministry. As the Biden administration pursues a lasting cease-fire, pressure mounts on President-elect Donald Trump, who has indicated a desire to reshape Middle East policy in a way that reflects his previous term's approaches. Trump has stated his intent to maintain U.S. influence while also advocating for local actors to play a significant role in regional issues. One critical aspect of his strategy includes the normalization of relations between Israel and Muslim nations through agreements like the Abraham Accords, which he brokered during his first term. These relations have already begun to display progress, especially with countries, such as Saudi Arabia, that have historically held complex ties with Israel. Amidst these diplomatic endeavors, Trump is likely to approach the delicate issue of West Bank settlements with caution, avoiding committing to unwavering support for Israel in this domain. Analysts predict that while he may seek to facilitate dialogue towards a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, expectations for substantial results should be tempered, since these negotiations have proven exceedingly intricate. Trump’s past withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal was a defining moment of his administration’s foreign policy, and it remains uncertain if he will pursue a new agreement that could potentially stabilize tensions with Iran. The incoming administration will need to navigate the precarious balance between maintaining a military presence in Syria and Iraq, while addressing the ISIS threat, which continues to pose challenges but is seen as diminished at this time. Moreover, the call for a reduction of U.S. forces abroad will require careful planning to avoid a hasty withdrawal similar to that from Afghanistan in 2021. The situation in the Middle East remains volatile, with various factions influencing the outcomes of Trump's policies. The complexity of regional dynamics, alongside Trump’s relationship with leaders like Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, suggests that U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East will evolve under his leadership if he returns to the Oval Office. Balancing interests in Israel, Iran, and the broader Arab world presents a formidable challenge that will involve navigating existing alliances while attempting to forge new paths for peace.