Ethiopia's battle to regain access to the sea

Ethiopia's quest for access to the Red Sea has led to significant regional instability, particularly following a maritime agreement with Somaliland on January 1, 2024. This treaty grants Ethiopia a 20-kilometer strip of land for a commercial port and naval base, which Somalia views as a violation of its sovereignty. The agreement has intensified tensions in the Horn of Africa, prompting military escalations and a realignment of regional alliances, as foreign powers become increasingly involved in the conflict. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has framed the maritime issue as an existential matter for Ethiopia, claiming a historical right to access the sea after losing its ports to Eritrea in 1993. His rhetoric has included calls for nationalist patriotism and resistance against perceived foreign destabilization efforts. This has contributed to a militarized atmosphere in the region, with neighbors engaging in hostile exchanges and forming military cooperation agreements. The situation has drawn the attention of international actors, including the United States, which has expressed concern over the potential for conflict. The U.S. special envoy for the Horn of Africa recently completed a trip to the region, highlighting the urgency of addressing the escalating tensions. The ongoing conflict raises questions about the viability of the maritime agreement and its implications for regional stability. As Ethiopia pursues its maritime ambitions, the potential for a cold war in the Horn of Africa looms large, with the risk of further destabilization affecting not only Ethiopia and Somalia but also the broader region. The future of the agreement remains uncertain as diplomatic efforts are needed to mitigate the rising tensions.