Super tough Soviet spacecraft could crash back to Earth soon

In April 2025, the 1972 Soviet spacecraft known as Kosmos 482 is drawing attention as it approaches a predicted re-entry date. Initially designed to withstand the intense atmospheric conditions on Venus, the spacecraft has remained in orbit for over five decades since it failed to land on its intended destination. As experts monitor its trajectory, they expect it to potentially crash back to Earth between May 9, 2025, and May 16, 2025. Marco Langbroek, an amateur orbit analyst, has shared updated predictions on his blog, noting that solar activity will influence the re-entry timing and trajectory. The spacecraft's eventual return presents a unique situation; while it is designed for extreme environments, its relatively small size—approximately one meter in diameter and weighing about half a ton—means it could survive the re-entry process better than typical space debris. Unlike larger objects that more likely burn up upon re-entry, Kosmos 482 is expected to withstand the atmospheric pressures. Given its dimension, it resembles the meteorite from the Chelyabinsk event that impacted Russia in 2013, indicating its potential for causing ground effects if it does hit land. Experts like Jonathan McDowell from Harvard have assessed that there is a very low probability—estimated at about one in 10,000—that the falling debris could injure someone upon re-entry. The spacecraft is inert and does not contain hazardous materials, contributing to a sense of safety despite the unpredictability of the object’s landing zone. As Kosmos 482 approaches re-entry, authorities advise vigilance but not widespread alarm. The long-awaited event highlights concerns about aging space debris, as remnants from previous space missions continue to orbit Earth. The European Space Agency had previously identified the mid-2020s as a target timeframe for this event, aligning with increasing discussions about the implications of space junk in Earth’s orbit. As we near the estimated date of re-entry, experts will continue to update predictions and assess the likelihood of the object impacting populated areas.