U.S. withdrawal opens Central Asia to influence from China and Russia

In 2021, the United States withdrew its military and development efforts from Afghanistan, signaling the end of a significant American engagement in Central Asia. This withdrawal has been interpreted as a geopolitical pivot, allowing China and Russia to expand their influence in the region. Both nations have begun to fill the void left by the U.S. through various means, including forming military pacts, deploying surveillance infrastructure, and increasing state-led investments. Countries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have particularly felt the impact of decreased U.S. support, which historically aimed to promote stability and reform in these nations. Kazakhstan, the largest economy in Central Asia, has a strategic position hosting key overland corridors and energy supplies, historically pursuing a foreign policy that balances between Russia, China, and Western nations. However, the diminished U.S. presence has hindered initiatives that aimed at improving civil society and governance. Similarly, Uzbekistan, under President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has sought gradual reforms, but U.S. aid, crucial for supporting such transitions, has waned, adversely affecting health and economic programs including tuberculosis control initiatives. The effects of U.S. withdrawal have been pronounced, as police, military, and health initiatives that once received American backing are now vulnerable to the dominance of authoritarian-backed investments from both China and Russia. This development has critical implications for the geopolitical equation in Central Asia, a region rich in resources such as rare earth elements and strategically important due to its energy exports and youthful population. As American civil diplomacy recedes, the strategic landscape narrows, significantly impacting U.S. leverage and capacity to influence regional stability and reform. With the alignment of both Russia and China growing stronger through joint military exercises and a potential formal partnership, the implications for U.S. national security become increasingly concerning. Analysts have suggested that a renewed form of diplomacy modeled after Henry Kissinger's strategies may be essential for the U.S. to regain its footing in the region. Such a strategy, termed 'double Kissinger,' would involve simultaneously seeking to improve relations with both Russia and China while addressing the underlying tensions that characterize international relations today. Embracing a nuanced approach may allow the U.S. to navigate the challenges posed by the evolving power dynamics and play a more proactive role in shaping the future of Central Asia.