Hertz Downgraded as JPMorgan Foresees Tough Times Ahead
- JPMorgan Chase analysts have downgraded Hertz to Underweight, expecting struggles until after 2026.
- The downgrade reflects a decline in expected earnings due to failed partnerships and significant losses from electric vehicle investments.
- Investors should prepare for volatility, as Hertz is not anticipated to recover until at least post-2026.
On October 22, 2024, JPMorgan Chase analysts officially downgraded Hertz Global Holdings to the Underweight category, anticipating continued financial struggles for the car rental company until after 2026. They highlighted that rental car companies generally have improved earnings capacities, yet Hertz's specific conditions are more troublesome than previously estimated. Analysts have indicated that their prior expectations of stronger company-specific growth were likely overestimated. Hertz has engaged in several partnerships with notable companies such as American Express, Tripadvisor, Uber, and Carvana. However, the expected benefits from these collaborations did not materialize, which has negatively impacted the company's financial outlook. Additionally, Hertz's substantial losses from transitioning to electric vehicles—approximately $1 billion—further deteriorated its financial health, driven by decreased used EV values and higher repair expenses. The analysts revised their earnings forecast for Hertz, reducing expected earnings for 2026 to $400 million from a previous estimate of $425 million for 2025. The company is now expected to experience negative free cash flows through 2025, which limits its ability to reinvest in its own share price through repurchases. Hertz faces potential liabilities amounting to $272 million related to past bankruptcy claims, which compounds the financial pressure on the firm. Given these circumstances, market participants are advised to brace for significant volatility ahead, as the company's path to normalized earnings appears uncertain.