Tropical disturbance targets southern Gulf of Mexico as hurricane season peaks

A tropical disturbance is currently near Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, having traveled across the Atlantic as a tropical wave. This system has been struggling to develop but is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche, where it may interact with a frontal boundary. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has noted some rotation in the cloud pattern, indicating potential for development as it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico. Forecasts suggest that the disturbance could strengthen into a tropical depression early to mid-next week, with the NHC increasing the odds of development to 40% over the next two days and 60% over the next week. This marks the highest chance of development for any tropical system in recent weeks, highlighting the significance of this disturbance as the hurricane season approaches its peak. In addition to this disturbance, another low-pressure system in the central Atlantic has shown signs of gaining traction, with the NHC raising its development odds from 10% to 30%. This system is expected to drift west-northwest and may encounter better conditions for development in the coming days. Despite a historically quiet period in the tropics, experts urge caution as the peak of hurricane season approaches. The NHC emphasizes that a significant portion of typical hurricane activity is still expected, particularly as the threat shifts closer to the U.S. coastline, where systems can develop rapidly and pose risks to coastal communities.