Turkey prepares to challenge Israeli air supremacy in Syria

In March 2025, recent Israeli airstrikes targeted airbases in central Syria, highlighting Israel's opposition to Turkey's military presence and discussions about a potential Syria-Turkey defense pact involving Turkish airbases. Reports from the North Press Agency revealed that Turkey initiated groundwork for an air defense center located in Menagh airbase near the Turkish border, aimed at strengthening Syria's monitoring capabilities of its airspace following the Assad regime's collapse. Israel's military operations have expanded in southern Syria, countering perceived threats from Turkey's military buildup and alliances with the new Syrian government. Despite Turkey's significant military resources, such as its large fleet of F-16s, analysts believe it is unlikely to effectively challenge Israel's air supremacy. Historical context reveals that previous attempts by Iran and Russia to establish deterrent air defenses have failed to significantly deter Israeli airstrikes, as Israel routinely conducts operations against Iran-related elements throughout Syria. The Turkish military, notably active since its cross-border operations began in 2016, maintains control over parts of northern Syria, captured from Kurdish rivals. However, Israel remains wary of any Turkish deployment at critical airbases such as T-4 or Palmyra, especially if it involves advanced systems that might threaten Israeli air operations. Turkey's air force, while capable, would face numerous challenges in countering the Israeli Air Force, which has expanded its fleet with advanced aircraft, including 75 F-35s. Israel's longstanding air dominance in the region poses substantial obstacles for Turkey in establishing a credible defense against Israeli overflights and operations. Israeli leadership continues to express concerns over Turkey's military engagements and their potential impact on regional security, largely due to Turkey's growing ties with the Syrian regime. In summary, while Turkey initiates steps to bolster Syria's air defense capabilities, the complexities and limitations of the geopolitical landscape—including Israel's advanced military capabilities and its historical operational freedom in Syria—indicate that Turkey's efforts will likely not translate into a challenge against Israel's established air supremacy in the near future.