Harris Tied in Swing States
- Harris gains among Black, Hispanic, and young voters in the Sun Belt region.
- New Times/Siena polls show a tie across four swing states.
- Demographic patterns in the Sun Belt start to look 'normal'.
In a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, the race among likely voters in four critical Sun Belt battleground states is tightly contested, with Vice President Kamala Harris holding a slight lead in North Carolina and Arizona, while former President Donald Trump leads in Georgia and Nevada. Overall, the results indicate a dead heat across these states, which could pose challenges for Trump, who may need to secure victories in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona to win the upcoming election. Historically, a close race in these states would not have raised eyebrows, as President Biden won by an average of just 0.4 points in the 2020 election. Interestingly, the current poll shows Harris ahead by the same margin, suggesting a shift in voter sentiment. This marks a notable change from earlier polling in May, where Trump had a significant lead of 10 points among likely voters in Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona—states that Biden narrowly won in the last election. The latest findings reflect a significant improvement for Biden compared to previous polls, where he had a commanding lead. The shift in voter preferences indicates a more competitive landscape as the election approaches, highlighting the importance of these battleground states in determining the outcome. As the political climate evolves, both candidates will need to focus on voter engagement and strategy in these key areas, as the tight race suggests that every vote will count in the upcoming election.