Belarus boosts military spending amid regional tensions

Since 2022, Belarus has seen a significant uptick in military spending, with a reported increase of over two and a half times in various military expenditures. This surge in budget allocations comes as a direct response to Russia's ongoing war on Ukraine, which has raised concerns among Belarus's neighboring countries. The 2025 military budget encompasses approximately 4.7 billion Belarusian rubles, equivalent to $1.6 billion, marking 2 percent of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This figure contrasts sharply with the 1.8 billion rubles budgeted in 2022, which accounted for about 0.95 percent of GDP. Notable acquisitions include advanced fighter jets, attack helicopters, and drones, indicating a substantial modernization of the Belarusian armed forces. The increased military expenditures took place amid economic strains within Belarus, as the nation has faced intensified isolation from the West following controversial actions in 2020 that led to widespread protests in opposition to President Alexander Lukashenko. As a result of sanctions and decreased oil exports, the country’s economy has struggled, with social spending now rivaling defense expenditures. Military analysts indicate that the large-scale growth of the Belarusian military suggests a lack of confidence in Russian forces as the nation’s protector against potential NATO threats. Ivan Kirichevskiy, a military analyst, remarked that the Belarusian military now perceives the Russian army as the primary adversary. Concerns about the possibility of Russian nuclear deployments to Belarus have also heightened anxieties regionally and globally. President Vladimir Putin's assurances of nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus, combined with the announcement of the hypersonic missile Oreshnik's upcoming deployment, have prompted alarm among Western analysts. The missile's conventional version was previously used in assaults on Ukraine, raising fears over potential nuclear threats that could extend from Belarusian territory. The juxtaposition of rising military spending alongside social welfare increases portrays a complex scenario where defense priorities appear to be catching up with social policies. Despite this military enhancement, Belarusian economists indicate a scaling back of economic growth prospects. Thus, while Belarus aims to bolster its military capabilities materially, the nation’s looming economic challenges raise further questions about the long-term viability of such spending strategies. As the situation continues to develop, the military posture of Belarus and its implications for regional security will be closely monitored by both allies and adversaries in the extended geopolitical landscape.