Hezbollah refuses to support Iran amid Israel conflict

In Lebanon, a significant report emerged from the Emirati newspaper the National indicating that Hezbollah, despite its longstanding alliance and dependency on Iran, is not preparing to enter the conflict against Israel. The sources, described as anonymous and linked to Hezbollah itself, suggest that the Lebanese group will refrain from acting in support of Iran, particularly if the United States decides to intervene militarily. This decision comes after Hezbollah has faced considerable losses and strikes, notably the presumed elimination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in an Israeli airstrike last September, a context that has significantly affected their operational capabilities. The situation surrounding Hezbollah has worsened over the past year, with targeted attacks by Israel diminishing the group's influence. There have been major airstrikes against Iranian assets in Tehran, resulting in the loss of some high-ranking military officials, including members from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). As the conflict escalates, Iran, which typically leverages proxy groups like Hezbollah for regional engagement, appears to be reassessing its strategy in light of the increased direct threats it now faces from Israel. Furthermore, the Lebanese government under President Joseph Aoun has reportedly cautioned Hezbollah against taking any action, and they assured that the group would not intervene in the ongoing hostilities. Observations have also revealed that key areas, historically used by Hezbollah for launching attacks—such as the Chebaa vicinity—are now abandoned, aligning with the ceasefire agreement established last November between Israel and Hezbollah. Despite potential pressures, other pro-Iran groups in the region, like the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq, have chosen to refrain from military involvement. Although they are organizing protests and calling for support for Iran, they remain cautious. The Hezbollah Brigades, a distinct faction within the PMF, have threatened intervention only if the U.S. directly engages in the conflict, indicating a focus on potential retaliation rather than immediate military action. This nuanced approach highlights the complexities facing Iranian proxies in the current geopolitical landscape, as they navigate their ties with Iran while responding to regional threats and internal pressures.