Transnistria faces economic crisis after Russian gas supply cut

As of June 11, 2025, Moldova's breakaway region of Transnistria has declared a state of economic emergency for 30 days in response to a sharp decline in natural gas supplies. The region, which has been controlled by pro-Russian separatists since the early 1990s and is internationally recognized as part of Moldova, has faced increasing energy shortages since January 2025. These shortages intensified when Russian state-owned gas company Gazprom halted gas deliveries to Transnistria, leading to a significant cut from the previous daily average of 2 million cubic meters of gas to only around 1 million cubic meters per day as of early June 2025. This dramatic reduction has resulted in a socio-economic crisis within the region, prompting local authorities to implement emergency measures. The political situation in Transnistria is complicated by its reliance on Russian gas, which the region had been receiving virtually at no cost as a means of Russian influence. This arrangement ended when the flow of gas was disrupted on January 1, 2025, following Ukraine’s decision to cease Russian gas transit, compounded by Moldova's significant debt to Gazprom, now exceeding $10 billion. In February 2025, after experiencing severe power outages, Transnistria managed to secure a new gas supply method through a Hungarian intermediary, facilitated by loans from Russia, to tide them over until a stable solution could be arranged. Despite offers of assistance, including a 60 million euro aid package from the European Union, local authorities have resisted external help, allegedly under pressure from the Kremlin. This demonstrates the delicate balance of control that Moscow maintains over the region, leveraging energy shortages to keep the breakaway territory reliant on Russian support. The 30-day emergency decree issued by leader Vadim Krasnoselsky comes on the heels of multiple prior declarations over the past months, reflecting ongoing instability and the dire economic situation within the region. Transnistria, home to around 465,800 inhabitants, remains an unstable geopolitical area due to its unresolved status and reliance on external influences. The ethnic composition and historical ties to Russia further complicate the socio-political landscape. The future of Transnistria hangs in the balance as the latest emergency measures signal the precarious state of its economy and potential implications for its relationship with Moldova and broader international community.