FiveThirtyEight Pauses Forecasts for Kamala Harris

Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, has publicly criticized the website for halting its presidential forecasts following Vice President Kamala Harris' ascension as the presumptive Democratic nominee. Silver, known for his accurate election predictions, expressed his concerns on social media, suggesting that the site may be delaying updates due to Harris' polling numbers being lower than those of President Biden. The FiveThirtyEight website currently states that it will release an election forecast once a new nominee is officially announced. Silver's comments came in response to a user questioning the lack of updates on FiveThirtyEight's forecasts. He proposed a theory that the site is waiting for Harris' polling to improve before making any predictions, emphasizing that his remarks were speculative rather than accusatory. The website has not yet provided a comment regarding Silver's claims. Harris secured the Democratic nomination during a virtual roll call and subsequently selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. This marks a significant shift in the race, as recent polls indicate that Harris has surpassed former President Donald Trump in key swing states, a notable change from Biden's previous standing. Silver, who departed from FiveThirtyEight last summer amid layoffs at ABC News, has since launched a Substack newsletter focused on election predictions and analysis, continuing his engagement in political forecasting outside of the platform he originally created.