OPEC predicts oil demand surge to 123 million barrels per day by 2050

The oil producers' group OPEC convened for its biennial international seminar in Vienna, Austria, on July 9-10, 2025, where it asserted that the long-term need for oil remains strong despite differing opinions among market analysts. The gathering produced the World Oil Outlook 2050 report, presenting a compelling outlook on oil consumption trends. OPEC's assessment suggests that oil will continue to be crucial for the economic advancement of developing countries and vital sectors that are difficult to decarbonize, such as heavy industry and aviation. The group's projection indicates a steady increase in oil demand reaching 106.3 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2026, escalating to 123 million bpd by 2050. The report highlighted that the majority of demand growth will originate from India, along with several Asian nations, the Middle East, and Africa. OPEC anticipates a total increase of 22.4 million bpd in combined demand from these regions between 2024 and 2050. Specifically, it forecasts India's contribution to be around 8.2 million bpd, while projections for China suggest an increase of less than 2 million bpd during the same timeframe. These findings are relied upon by OPEC to reinforce their position against the notion of peak oil demand, which seems to be diminishing in discussions within the industry. However, the broader context of global energy consumption shows that while hydrocarbons will remain influential, challenges persist regarding their dominance. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a peak in global oil demand at 105.6 million bpd around 2029 before a gradual decline as the next decade unfolds. These scenarios emphasize that the future of energy consumption will be significantly influenced by regional economic productivity levels, digital advancements, and geopolitical shifts, particularly the impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade dynamics. The Allianz Trade economist points out the difficulty in accurately predicting energy consumption patterns over a time horizon of 25 to 30 years, stating that ongoing uncertainties could drastically reshape demand and supply forecasts. The report from OPEC reflects an optimistic view on future oil consumption, yet it also acknowledges the potential for hydrocarbons not to retain the dominant position that the organization hopes for. With alternative energy gaining traction, the energy mix is expected to evolve, exhibiting a notable increase from 3.5% in 2024 to 13.5% in 2050 for renewables. Therefore, while oil is projected to remain 'indispensable', the conversation surrounding energy sources and their roles is transitioning as countries strive to increase both production and efficiency in a changing economic landscape.