Arizona Diamondbacks take a huge risk by signing Corbin Burnes

In December 2024, Corbin Burnes, a former pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers, signed a substantial six-year, $210 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks. This signing represents the Diamondbacks' most significant move during the offseason, which is particularly noteworthy given the ongoing evaluation of Burnes’ pitching ability and performance trends. Burnes is recognized for a pitch known as the sweeper, which gained recognition in the latter half of the 2023 season. He successfully employed the pitch, exhibiting remarkable statistics that showcase its effectiveness against opposing hitters. His sweeper was pivotal, allowing him to maintain an impressive 53.3 percent swing-and-miss rate, demonstrating its potential impact in future games for the Diamondbacks. Despite the potential for success that comes with Burnes' new arsenal, there are significant risks associated with this contract. Over the past few seasons, Burnes has seen a concerning decline in his strikeout rate, which fell to a low of 23.1 percent in the 2024 season. The Diamondbacks, however, seem unfazed by this dip. Analysts speculate that the team's adjustments in pitching strategy, including additions to its coaching staff, could bolster Burnes’ performance and help leverage his remaining talents. The history of the organization also plays a critical role in this decision, reflecting a legacy of fluctuating outcomes from high-risk contracts for pitchers. For example, Randy Johnson was a success during his time with the franchise, while Madison Bumgarner's acquisition turned into a major disappointment. In light of these past experiences, the Diamondbacks appear confident in their investment, hoping that Burnes can optimize his ability to pitch more effectively. His sweeper, along with the cutter, curveball, and slider, will ideally serve to keep opposing batters off-balance. Analysts are optimistic yet cautious about Burnes’ morphed pitching strategy, which has transitioned more towards contact pitches rather than solely aiming for strikeouts. As he tries to adapt, any resurgence could help him return to an elite level while also contributing to the team's overall path to competitiveness in the league. The contract entails an opt-out clause after the 2026 season, which may serve as a safeguard should Burnes’s performance not align with the expectations set during his signing. Ultimately, the Diamondbacks are banking on Burnes as a cornerstone of their rotation that, given the right conditions and coaching support, could help elevate the team's performance and aspirations for postseason success in the coming years. This move illustrates the ongoing evolution within the franchise as they navigate the realms of player procurement and team-building strategies while facing the inherent volatility associated with large financial commitments. In summary, the signing of Burnes marks both an exciting opportunity and a considerable gamble for the Arizona Diamondbacks as they seek to reshape their pitching staff and return to prominence in the league.