Sep 12, 2024, 12:00 AM
Sep 12, 2024, 12:00 AM

Lindor shines in NL MVP race but trails Ohtani

Provocative
Highlights
  • Francisco Lindor leads the NL in FanGraphs WAR with 7.4, while Shohei Ohtani has a WAR of 7.0.
  • Ohtani is projected to achieve 52 home runs and 53 stolen bases this season, making him a strong MVP candidate.
  • Despite Lindor's elite defensive skills, Ohtani's offensive statistics may overshadow him in the MVP race.
Story

Francisco Lindor, the standout player for the Mets, is currently a long shot in the National League MVP race, trailing behind Shohei Ohtani. Despite leading the NL in FanGraphs WAR with a score of 7.4, Lindor's odds to win the MVP award are +500, while Ohtani is favored at -900. Ohtani's impressive season includes projections of 52 home runs, 115 RBIs, and 53 stolen bases, along with a .292 batting average and an NL-best .992 OPS. His performance is bolstered by historical context, as no designated hitter has won the MVP without also being a pitcher since 1973. Lindor's case for MVP is strengthened by his exceptional defensive skills, ranking as the third-best fielder in baseball, according to Fangraphs. Additionally, he is recognized as the 20th-most clutch player in the league, contrasting sharply with Ohtani's ranking of 541st in the same category. This defensive prowess and clutch performance provide a compelling argument for Lindor, despite Ohtani's offensive dominance. The historical precedent for designated hitters winning the MVP award is limited, with David Ortiz coming closest in 2005. Ortiz's impressive stats that year included 47 home runs and 148 RBIs, but he ultimately lost to Alex Rodriguez, who had a significantly higher WAR. This context raises questions about Ohtani's chances, especially since he is not pitching this season due to Tommy John surgery and is expected to return in 2025. Looking ahead, if Ohtani maintains his health, he is likely to be a strong contender for the MVP award in future seasons, having already won the AL MVP in 2021 and 2023. The ongoing debate between Lindor and Ohtani highlights the complexities of evaluating player value in the context of historical performance and positional significance.

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