Sep 12, 2024, 12:00 AM
Sep 12, 2024, 12:00 AM

Deloitte forecasts moderate holiday sales growth of 2.3% to 3.3%

Highlights
  • Deloitte forecasts holiday sales growth of 2.3% to 3.3% from November through January, slower than last year's 4.3%.
  • Ecommerce is expected to drive growth, with online sales projected to increase by 7% to 9%, totaling between $289 billion and $294 billion.
  • Retailers focusing on value and convenience are likely to maintain customer loyalty despite economic challenges.
Story

Deloitte's annual holiday retail forecast indicates a moderate growth in holiday sales, projecting an increase of 2.3% to 3.3% from November through January. This growth is a slowdown compared to last year's 4.3% increase, reflecting a return to more normalized spending patterns following the pandemic. Despite the anticipated growth, total sales are expected to remain robust, estimated between $1.58 trillion and $1.59 trillion. The forecast highlights a significant shift in consumer behavior, with a renewed focus on value and convenience as inflation impacts disposable income. While inflation is easing, leading to increased spending capacity, it also presents challenges such as lower savings rates and higher credit card debt. Ecommerce is expected to be a major driver of growth this holiday season, with online sales projected to rise between 7% and 9%, totaling between $289 billion and $294 billion. This trend aligns with the ongoing decline in online prices, which have decreased for 24 consecutive months, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing power. Retailers that have enhanced their omnichannel capabilities and emphasized value are likely to benefit from continued customer loyalty. The overall economic outlook suggests a soft landing rather than a recession, with a balance of growth and inflation, positioning retailers to adapt to changing consumer preferences effectively.

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