Trump's tariffs fail to significantly reduce US imports from China

In a recent report published by DHL and the New York University Stern School of Business, analysis suggests that the impact of tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump during his first term has been significantly overstated. The report reveals that while official statistics indicated a decline of 7.9 percentage points in the Chinese share of overall US imports from 2018 to 2024, the actual decline is only 3.7 percentage points, highlighting a substantial under-reporting of imports from China. Interestingly, despite the decrease in direct imports, the share of US imports that include Chinese goods has risen from 20 percent to 22 percent during the same period. This means that goods entering the US through other trading partners increasingly contain Chinese content, allowing Chinese companies to circumvent tariffs despite restrictions. This trend has become more pronounced with the establishment of numerous Chinese operations in key US trading partners like Mexico, enabled by DHL's efforts to facilitate trade with these entities. John Pearson, the chief executive of DHL Express, reinforced that their enterprise has incorporated Chinese employees to enhance trade activities worldwide, demonstrating a significant adaptation of trade strategies in response to the tariffs. As a consequence, the protective tariffs that were designed to curb Chinese imports have failed to achieve their intended goals, creating a landscape where Chinese goods still prevail in US markets, albeit through indirect routes.