France's Wheat Crop Expected to Drop 25% Due to Heavy Rain

The French agriculture ministry announced on August 9 that it has significantly reduced its forecast for the country’s 2024 soft wheat production, now projected to be 25% lower than last year. This decline positions the harvest among the worst in the past four decades for France, the European Union's largest grain producer. The ministry attributed the poor outlook to persistent rainfall since autumn, which has delayed planting, hindered crop development, and increased the prevalence of crop diseases. As of August 1, 2024, ongoing cereal harvests have been hampered by humidity and storms experienced in July. The ministry noted that yields for all crops have been revised downward, with the area planted dropping to 4.2 million hectares, a 10.8% decrease compared to 2023. This combination of factors has led to predictions that the 2024 soft wheat harvest will be among the three smallest in the last 40 years, with estimates indicating the lowest yield since 1986. In contrast to the ministry's estimates, French analysts project the soft wheat crop to be between 25 and 26 million tonnes. Overall, total cereal production in France is now expected to reach 54.8 million tonnes for 2024, a decrease of approximately 10 million tonnes from the previous year. While winter grains have suffered, some spring crops have thrived under the challenging conditions. The ministry forecasts a 9% increase in grain maize production to 13.75 million tonnes, while barley output is expected to decline to 10.4 million tonnes, reflecting a 15% drop from 2023.