Topic overview
In brief
- Colorado State University has updated its Atlantic hurricane season forecast, predicting a total of 9 named storms and 4 hurricanes this year.
- The forecast indicates a significant drop in the probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. to 16%, down from 24% in June.
- This decrease is largely attributed to the expected influence of a strong El Niño, which typically leads to fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic.
Summary
In the United States, Colorado State University (CSU) has released its updated forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, maintaining its predictions from July. The forecast indicates that the likelihood of a major hurricane making landfall in the continental U.S. is now at 16%, a significant decrease from 24% in June and well below the historical average of 43% from 1880 to 2020. This reduction in landfall odds is attributed to the anticipated presence of a strong El Niño during the peak hurricane season, which is expected to last from mid-August to mid-October. El Niño is characterized by warmer than average water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which can disrupt typical atmospheric patterns and lead to fewer hurricanes forming in the Atlantic. CSU's forecast includes predictions of 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) for the year, a decrease from earlier forecasts that anticipated 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The only tropical activity recorded so far this season includes Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha, which made landfall as weak storms along the Gulf Coast. Tropical Storm Arthur brought flooding to the Upper Texas Coast on June 17, while Tropical Storm Bertha affected the northern Gulf Coast before making landfall in Louisiana on July 22. CSU emphasizes that while El Niño conditions are likely to influence hurricane activity, other factors, such as water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, also play a crucial role in determining hurricane development. The forecast suggests that the ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen, further impacting the Atlantic hurricane season.