Topic overview
In brief
- A recent poll shows James Talarico leading Ken Paxton by 2 points in the Texas Senate race.
- Talarico has a significant 40-point lead among independent voters, indicating a shift in voter sentiment.
- The changing dynamics among independent voters could impact the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections.
Summary
In Texas, a recent poll conducted from July 27-30, 2026, revealed that Democratic state Representative James Talarico holds a substantial 40-point lead among independent voters over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. This poll, carried out by Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, indicates that Talarico is leading Paxton by 2 points overall, with 47 percent to 45 percent. The survey included 1,200 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points. This data is crucial as Texas is considered a key battleground for Democrats aiming to flip control of the Senate in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections.
Historically, Texas has been viewed as a solidly conservative state, but the changing dynamics among independent voters could signal a shift in political allegiance. In the 2024 elections, former President Donald Trump won Texas independents by a narrow margin of just one point over Kamala Harris. However, the current poll shows a significant change, with Talarico's support among independents being attributed to their negative perception of Trump and Paxton's reputation as a hyper-partisan Republican. This shift is further emphasized by Talarico's strong backing from Democratic voters, with 97 percent indicating their intention to vote for him.