Topic overview
In brief
- OPEC+ has approved an increase in oil production quotas by about 188,000 barrels per day starting in September.
- This increase completes the rollback of a 1.65 million barrels per day supply cut that began in 2023.
- Analysts suggest a pause in further output increases may occur in the fourth quarter as OPEC+ prepares for 2027 quota negotiations.
Summary
On August 2, 2026, OPEC+ announced an increase in oil production quotas by approximately 188,000 barrels per day, effective from September. This decision marks the completion of the gradual rollback of voluntary output cuts that had been in place since 2023. The core members of OPEC+, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, participated in this decision, which is significant given the ongoing challenges posed by export disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran and Ukraine wars. Despite the increase, analysts noted that previous monthly hikes had little impact on the market due to these disruptions.
The phased rollback of a total of 1.65 million barrels per day in supply cuts began earlier this year, when the United Arab Emirates was still a member of OPEC. Following its departure in May, the remaining core members have been managing production levels more closely. Analysts, including Jorge Leon from Rystad, suggest that OPEC+ may pause further output increases in the fourth quarter of 2026, as they prepare for negotiations regarding new production quotas for 2027.