Topic overview
In brief
- NOAA has revised its forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, predicting seven to thirteen named storms.
- The agency cites El Niño as the primary reason for the expected below-normal storm activity.
- Communities should prepare for all storms, as even minor storms can cause significant damage.
Summary
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated its forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, indicating a significant reduction in expected storm activity. This update, released in early August 2026, reflects a drop in the predicted number of named storms from eight to fourteen to a new range of seven to thirteen. The agency has also revised its expectations for hurricanes, now forecasting two to six hurricanes, down from three, and zero to two major hurricanes, a decrease from one to three. This change is attributed to the ongoing influence of El Niño, which NOAA states is becoming increasingly dominant in shaping hurricane season activity.
As of early August, there have been two named storms this season, Arthur and Bertha, with Arthur causing record rainfall and tornadoes along the Gulf Coast. NOAA emphasizes the importance of preparedness for all storms, regardless of their strength, as even minor storms can lead to significant damage. The agency's updated forecast indicates a 75% chance of below-normal activity, a notable increase from the previous 55% estimate. This heightened likelihood is a direct result of the strengthening El Niño, which NOAA forecasters believe will continue to suppress storm formation in the Atlantic.