Nate Silver's Forecast Shows Democrats Leading in 2026 US Midterm Elections for Senate and House

As of October 8, 2026, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin forecast gives Democrats a 74.8% chance of winning the Senate and a 93.1% chance of winning the House in the upcoming US midterm elections. These are the highest probabilities since the model began in August. The forecast predicts Democrats will pick up five Senate seats, with key races in North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Maine, and Alaska. The Democrats' gains are attributed to President Trump's unpopularity, as midterm elections are often a referendum on the sitting president. A September poll shows Democrats leading on health care, immigration, and cost of living.