Public in England and Wales wrongly think most killers are minority ethnic

A recent study conducted by YouGov and analyzed by researchers at King’s College London has revealed significant public misperceptions about crime and ethnicity in England and Wales. The survey, which polled 1,800 people, found that the public dramatically overestimates the involvement of ethnic minorities and foreign nationals in serious crimes. Respondents believed that 55% of convicted killers were from an ethnic minority background, whereas official data shows the actual figure is 35%. Conversely, they thought only 45% of homicides were committed by white individuals, when the true percentage stands at 64%. These findings expose a substantial gap between public perception and statistical reality.

Beyond homicide, the study uncovered similar inaccuracies regarding foreign national offenders. The public estimated that foreign nationals made up 25% of the prison population, but the real proportion is just 12%. When it came to sexual offences, respondents believed 30% were committed by foreigners, while the actual rate is half that at 15%. The research highlighted that supporters of the Reform UK party held the most distorted views. Reform voters estimated that 50% of sexual offences were perpetrated by foreign nationals, a figure 20 percentage points higher than that given by Conservative supporters. This suggests a strong correlation between political alignment, concerns about immigration, and the degree of misperception.

Professor Bobby Duffy of King’s College London provided a framework for understanding these misperceptions, categorizing the causes into two main areas: cognitive biases and external influences. He explained that people tend to inflate the scale of issues they are already worried about, creating a feedback loop where concern and perceived prevalence reinforce each other. Reform supporters, who express higher levels of concern about immigration and diversity, are therefore more likely to notice and remember crimes committed by minority groups, fitting their pre-existing worldview. Additionally, Duffy pointed to the role of media, social media, and political communications that emphasize such examples, further entrenching these inaccurate beliefs among certain audiences.

The survey also explored the contentious issue of so-called two-tier justice, the claim that ethnic and religious minorities receive preferential treatment from the criminal justice system. Despite evidence consistently showing the opposite, the idea appears to be gaining traction. The study found that 52% of respondents believed minorities were sentenced differently, with 29% thinking they received more lenient sentences and 23% believing they were treated more harshly. Duffy warned that these unfounded beliefs could erode trust in the justice system and lead to calls for radical, unnecessary changes. He noted that perceptions were more closely aligned by age group than by ethnicity, with white and non-white respondents providing nearly identical answers, indicating that generational or societal factors may play a larger role than personal background in shaping these views. The public also overestimated the prevalence of crime victimization, guessing a median rate of 27% when the actual figure for those who personally experienced crime between 2024 and 2025 was 9.7%.