Trump backs Paxton in Texas Senate primary, shaking GOP unity

The 2026 midterm elections are shaping up to be a critical test for Republicans, who currently hold narrow majorities in both the House and Senate. With President Trump's political operation amassing a $400 million war chest, the focus has turned to key races that could determine control of Congress. Among the most contentious is the Texas Senate race, where Trump's endorsement has created a rift within the Republican Party. In May, Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent Senator John Cornyn, despite Paxton facing dismissed fraud charges and a state House impeachment for corruption. The endorsement surprised many, as Cornyn is a senior Republican with a long tenure, but Trump's influence remains dominant. The race is now a statistical tie, with Democratic challenger James Talarico, a state representative, holding a razor-thin 1-point lead in recent polls, within the margin of error. This contest is expected to be one of the most expensive in the country, with outside groups pouring millions into advertising and voter outreach.

In Ohio, the Senate race is also highly competitive. Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to replace Vice President JD Vance, is facing former Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat who lost his seat in 2024. Brown is averaging a less-than-a-point lead over Husted, reflecting the national political headwinds that Republicans face, particularly on economic issues. Husted's campaign is struggling to distance itself from the administration's unpopular policies, while Brown is leveraging his name recognition and past record. The race is expected to be a toss-up, with both parties investing heavily in the state.

Another key race is in Maine, where Senator Susan Collins, a moderate Republican, is facing a tough reelection. Collins, who has been criticized for her support of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, is polling behind her new Democratic opponent, former state Senator Troy Jackson, by an average of 2 points. The original Democratic nominee, Graham Platner, dropped out due to sexual misconduct allegations, but Jackson has quickly gained traction. Collins has historically performed well despite polling deficits, having won in 2020 despite never leading in the polls, but the political climate in Maine may be more challenging this time.

In Michigan, former Republican Representative Mike Rogers is in a high-profile race against Democratic opponent Abdul el Sayed. Rogers, who narrowly lost his Senate bid in 2024, is now running again with the backing of Trump's MAGA Inc., which recently sent its first 2026 email on his behalf. Rogers holds a 1-point average lead over el Sayed, who won his primary last Tuesday. Republicans are expected to attack el Sayed's progressive credentials, highlighting his endorsements from socialist figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders. The race is seen as a bellwether for the national mood, with both parties viewing it as a must-win.

These races, along with others, will likely determine the balance of power in Washington. Trump's involvement, particularly in Texas, has created internal divisions, but his endorsement power remains a significant factor. The outcome of these contests will hinge on voter turnout, economic sentiment, and the effectiveness of campaign messaging. As the election approaches, both parties are mobilizing their bases and courting independents, making the 2026 midterms one of the most closely watched in recent history.