Trump's kingmaker power faces critical test in Florida and Wyoming primaries

President Donald Trump's influence over the Republican Party is facing a significant test in upcoming gubernatorial primaries in Florida and Wyoming. Despite his endorsement remaining one of the most powerful forces in GOP politics, recent races have exposed potential limits to his kingmaker status. As of early August 2026, Trump had endorsed 312 primary candidates across congressional, state legislative, and state executive races for the 2026 election cycle, with an impressive 97 percent of those whose races have concluded winning their primaries. However, the gubernatorial races present a different challenge, as 10 out of 17 Trump-endorsed candidates in open Republican gubernatorial primaries have won, while four have lost, according to a Politico analysis.

In Florida, Trump has thrown his support behind U.S. Representative Byron Donalds, who is running to replace the current governor. A Quantus Insights poll conducted between July 27 and 29 among 635 respondents showed Donalds commanding 49.6 percent support from Florida Republican voters, more than three times the share of his nearest rival, Collins, who held 15.7 percent. This comfortable lead suggests that Trump's endorsement continues to carry significant weight in the Sunshine State, though the primary outcome will ultimately determine whether his backing translates into electoral success.

The Wyoming primary presents a more complex picture, where the state Republican Party has endorsed a different candidate, Bien, rather than Trump's preferred choice. A recent poll released by the Barlow campaign shows Barlow leading with 42 percent support, while Degenfelder, whom Trump has endorsed, holds 19 percent, and Bien trails with 14 percent. This split between the state party establishment and Trump's endorsement highlights the internal tensions within the GOP and raises questions about whether the former president's influence may be waning in state-level executive races.

Political analysts suggest that these primaries may indicate whether Trump's endorsement is less effective in state-level races compared to congressional contests. As one expert, Vaughn, noted, the voters in gubernatorial elections are the same as in congressional races, but the races themselves and the candidates running in them are different. Another gubernatorial loss could strengthen the argument that there are limits to Trump's influence, particularly when Republican voters are choosing an executive rather than a legislator. Nevertheless, Trump remains by far the most important individual endorser in the nation for either party, and his support is still enormously, even historically, beneficial to GOP primary candidates. The outcomes in Florida and Wyoming will serve as a referendum on his continued grip on the Republican Party.