Topic overview
In brief
- This year's El Niño is expected to be the strongest in 140 years, significantly impacting Southeast Asia.
- Countries like Thailand and Vietnam may see rice yields drop by 2 to 8 percent due to drought risks.
- The effects of El Niño will persist into 2028, raising concerns about food supply and prices in the region.
Summary
Southeast Asia is currently facing the impacts of a significant El Niño event, which is projected to be the strongest in 140 years. This climatic phenomenon is expected to last until spring 2027, leading to severe consequences for food production in the region. Countries such as Thailand and Vietnam, which are among the world's largest rice exporters, are at risk of reduced yields, with estimates suggesting a decline of 2 to 8 percent. Additionally, Indonesia and Malaysia, responsible for 85 percent of global palm oil production, are also likely to experience adverse effects on their agricultural output.
The World Food Program has identified the Philippines and Timor Leste as particularly vulnerable to the impacts of El Niño, primarily due to the heightened risk of droughts and floods that threaten staple crops. However, other nations in the region, including Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam, are also facing serious drought risks. The situation is exacerbated by warnings from Thailand's Office of the National Water Resources, which has indicated that the country may encounter a drought crisis more severe than that experienced in 2015, another year marked by El Niño.