Nearly a quarter of Trump disapprovers in Michigan refuse to back Democrat el Sayed

A Fox News poll in Michigan has revealed a significant vulnerability for Democratic Senate candidate Abdul el Sayed, despite widespread disapproval of President Donald Trump in the state. The survey found that while 58% of Michigan voters hold an unfavorable opinion of Trump—including 96% of Democrats and 78% of independents—el Sayed is failing to consolidate these anti-Trump voters. Specifically, 74% of those who view Trump unfavorably intend to vote for el Sayed, but a notable 23% plan to support Republican candidate Mike Rogers instead. This gap represents a potential path to victory for Rogers in a state where Trump's unpopularity would normally doom a Republican candidate.

Political analysts have identified a critical bloc of "double haters"—voters who disapprove of both Trump and el Sayed—as the decisive factor in the Michigan Senate race. Ron Brownstein, a Bloomberg and CNN analyst, noted there is no precedent for Republicans winning a Senate race in a state where Trump is that unpopular, yet el Sayed is significantly underperforming among Trump disapprovers. Brownstein estimated that as much as 20% of voters could end up with unfavorable views of both candidates. Historically, double haters have tended to vote against the party controlling the White House, but Republicans hope el Sayed's progressive positions are so extreme that these voters will break their usual pattern and support Rogers.

The poll also found that 54% of Michigan voters overall are concerned that el Sayed's positions on issues are "too extreme." Even among those with an unfavorable opinion of Trump, 35% expressed such concerns about el Sayed. The candidate's progressive stances, including his opposition to Israel's actions in Gaza and his alliances with figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Twitch streamer Hasan Piker, have defined his public image. The New York Times' Nate Cohn characterized el Sayed as campaigning as a firebrand with matching language, while a Guardian article reported that el Sayed had made comments about putting an "ogre's" head on a pike—a reference he claimed was about Senator John Fetterman rather than his opponent.

Chuck Todd, writing on X, argued that Democrats should have prevented el Sayed from becoming the nominee, stating that he is more objectionable than most any Michigan Democrat and that the party appeased its "kooks" by allowing his candidacy. The race has not yet entered its most intense phase, meaning el Sayed still has time to win over skeptical voters, but the early indicators suggest his progressive profile may be too polarizing for a general election in Michigan. The outcome will likely hinge on whether the double haters ultimately reject el Sayed in sufficient numbers to deliver a Republican victory in a state where Trump remains deeply unpopular.