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Brazil's President Lula leads Flavio Bolsonaro by 0.3 points in runoff poll
In Brazil, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are statistically tied in simulated runoff polls ahead of the October 4 election. A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll from September 18-20 showed Lula with 46% support versus Bolsonaro's 45%, within the margin of error. An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll from September 17-22 showed Lula at 47.7% and Bolsonaro at 47.4%. Both polls suggest a highly competitive race, with the two frontrunners likely advancing to the October 25 runoff if no candidate wins over 50% of valid votes in the first round.

Updated Sep 23, 2026 First reported Sep 21, 2026