Berliners will vote on Sunday to elect a new state parliament. The far-right AfD is surging, projected to win around 18 percent of the vote, nearly double its 2023 result. The Left and CDU are neck and neck at around 21-23 percent, while the SPD, Berlin's traditional largest party, is plummeting to around 10-12 percent. The AfD's campaign has focused on migration and local issues, and its rise follows success in Saxony-Anhalt. Several coalition options are possible, but the 'firewall' against the far right is likely to hold.
We’ll perform a deep-dive analysis of all sources and publicly available external materials, then prepare a structured timeline of events, an in-depth report explaining the background and context, and multiple perspectives.