In Texas, a new SoCal Strategies poll shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by 5 points in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 45%, a reversal from June when Paxton led. Talarico's support surged among Hispanic and independent voters. Prediction markets have also flipped in his favor, with Polymarket giving him a 53% chance of winning. The race is now considered a toss-up, and a Talarico victory would be historic, as Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. Senator Ted Cruz has warned that Republicans could lose Texas.
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